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Rabu, 27 April 2011

Micro franchises offer best value - JP Morgan

* Research call – Indonesian banks: Micro franchises offer best value, as industry margins moving lower in 1Q. While markets have focused on healthy loan growth (25% y/y in early April according to BI), we have noted a resumption of the declining trend in margins recently. System net interest margins in February stood at 5.53%, down 20 bps from December levels. The risk is that lower margins offset some of the volume driven growth in FY11E.

Micro franchises should be cushioned, and offer the best value: We expect most margin pressure in corporate loans, while micro franchises (fixed rate products) should be best insulated. This view is not reflected by stock markets currently. Figure 2 below scatters RoE vs PBV. We note that all the banks to the right of the trend line (offering better value) have significant micro banking businesses. Our top pick is BRI, where we think 1Q results could be a catalyst for further upside.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-583050-0.pdf

* Astra Group: Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) – 1Q11 sales +69%, EBIT +11%, and net income +140% year-on-year. The 1Q11 net income of Rp682bn is 12% lower than Aditya’s 1Q11 preview etimate of Rp773bn. See the attach 1Q11 results preview note on the Astra group from Aditya Srinath. AALI trades on 12.9x P/E FY11 based on Aditya’s latest estimates.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-582799-0.pdf

* Energi Mega Persada (ENRG) – showed encouraging profit turnaround in 1Q11 to Rp14.3bn, from a loss of Rp21.7bn a year ago. Sales jumped 64% to Rp421bn from Rp257bn, EBITDA jumped 159% to Rp194.6bn from Rp75bn. Oil output jumped to 7,056 bopd (from 6,733), gas to 43.2 mmscfd (from 41). Oil selling price up to US$108 from US$78, gas selling price to US$3.5 from US$2.5. (Investor Daily).
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.13

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