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Jumat, 29 April 2011

United Tractors: A good start for the year (Buy; Rp23,250; TP Rp27,000; UNTR IJ) - DBS Vickers

At a Glance
• 1Q11 results were inline with estimates
• Strong Komatsu sales lifted earnings
• Maintain Buy, TP lowered to Rp27,000 (from
Rp27,200)as we adjusted FY11/12 earnings by 1-2%.

Comment on Results
United Tractors (UT) 1Q11 net profit grew 43% yoy to Rp1.3tn, inline with our and consensus estimates (25% of our FY11F of Rp5.2tn). Revenue increased by 45% yoy to Rp12.6tn led by strong 83% yoy growth in revenue from construction machinery
(Komatsu) while Pama grew by only 8% yoy. However, gross margin fell to 17.6% (from 18.6% in 4Q10) on the back of lower contribution from after sales services, higher production costs at Pama due to heavy rainfall and stronger rupiah. We lowered our
FY11-12F net profit by 1-2% after imputing lower margin at Pama and Komatsu. Komatsu contributed 54% of 1Q11 revenue while Pama 35% and coal mining 11%.
Looking ahead, we expect slower sales volume for Komatsu due to potential supply disruptions in Japan while Pama’s production should accelerate from 2Q onwards due to better weather conditions.

Recommendation
We maintain our Buy call, DCF-based (WACC12%, terminal growth 3%) TP lowered to Rp27,000 (from Rp27,200) to reflect the earnings revision. The stock is currently trading at attractive 15x FY11F PE supported by 20% annual earnings growth between
FY10-12F.

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