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Selasa, 26 April 2011

BMRI (TP Rp8,200) - : Corporate Result Flash - Bahana

2M11 performance
§ Bank Mandiri (BMRI) reported 2M11 net profit (bank only) of IDR2.7t (+104.3% y-y), slightly above our expectation. February’s net profit surged 109.2% m-m, reflecting the recovery on loans from Garuda worth IDR1.45t, which we have not factored into our earnings forecast.

§ This recovery translated to 145.4% m-m jump in non-interest interest income to reach IDR2.0t, accounting for nearly 56% of February’s total operating income (vis-à-vis 36% in January).

§ February’s net interest income stood at IDR1.5t (+7.0% m-m), bringing 2M11 net interest income to IDR2.9t (+10.8% y-y), in line with our estimate. Loans (bank only) grew 1.2% m-m, bringing 2011 ytd loan contraction to 0.7%.

Outlook
This 2M11 results have encouraged us to upgrade our 2011 earnings forecast by 8.8% to IDR13.1t (Exhibit 5), to reflect loan recovery from Garuda and the recent settlement of the Domba Mas loans via divestment to Bakrie Sumatra Plantations. Additionally, we have also adjusted interest income coming from the government’s fixed coupon bonds, which is currently tied to the 3-month SPN vis-à-vis 3-month SBI rate previously. As this carries a negative spread of around 1.2%, BMRI may experience IDR560b lower income, assuming ceteris paribus. We have also incorporated the unrealized losses arising from the underwriting of the Garuda’s IPO by Mandiri Sekuritas. Our other 2011 assumptions remain intact with loan growth of 21% (vis-à-vis management’s expectation of 25%) and LDR of 72%.

Recommendation and valuation
With these earnings upgrades and lower-than-expected dividend payout of 35% (vis-à-vis 50% previously), we have accordingly adjusted BMRI’s book value per share by 2.6% to IDR2,714. As the yield on the 10-year government risk free rate is trending down, in line with inflationary pressure (which is expected to be well-contained at 7.0%), we have lowered our cost of equity assumption by 50 bps. To reflect these changes, we have upgraded our recommendation from hold to BUY with a revised target price to IDR8,200 (+9.3% from previously), implying 2011 P/BV of 3.0x.

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