Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Selasa, 01 Maret 2011

Indofood CBP Alert : Sharp pullback in wheat and CPO prices - Deutsche Bank

Indofood CBP {Ticker: ICBP.JK, Closing Price: 4,575 IDR, Target Price: 7,000 IDR, Recommendation: Buy}

Concerns on sharp increase in wheat and cpo prices have been a significant drag for ICBP stock price, which is down almost 30% off its peak. Of late however, we have seen significant 15% plus decline in ICBP's two main raw material prices on the expectation of normalisation in weather condition and increased planting lured by higher wheat prices. The significant cost pullback should ease the pressure on cost as well as its stock price.

Currently wheat and cpo prices are some 20% and 29% higher than the average of last year, respectively. We believe ICBP's Rp100/pack (9%) noodle price increase back in mid-Jan, is sufficient to neutralize the cost pressure of such magnitude. Our wheat price assumption: US$7.7/bushel, and CPO price assumption: RM3,300/MT.

Although wheat and cpo prices are inherently volatile, we believe the structure of the instant noodle industry (benign competition and favorable substitution - being the cheapest ready-to-eat food) and consumer increasing affability, should afford ICBP the pricing power. The high commodity prices back in 2008 was a case in point where it hiked noodle price by c. 70% and only to see a mere 10% decline in volume; which interestingly was only due to the collapse of its low-end brand (Sakura), whist its Top-3 brands remained stable.

ICBP is trading at 15.8x PER FY11F, a steep discount to Tingyi (Hold, 18.0 HKD) at 24.2x. We believe ICBP deserves a higher multiple supported by its repeated demonstration of pricing power, high earnings quality, dominant industry position, strong balance sheet and management. Reiterate BUY.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar