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Rabu, 02 Maret 2011

Strategy Alert : Moving away from inflation risk - Deutsche Bank

February inflation came in surprisingly low at 6.84%yoy on 0.13%mom (slowest pace of increase in almost a year). Much of that was due to deflation of -0.33%mom in primary foods, principally rice, chicken and chilli. At the same time, globally traded food commodities such as wheat and CPO, which have come off some 15% of late, also help upcoming March inflation. Interestingly, just about all major CPI components saw slower pace of increase from previous month. Core inflation edged up to 4.36% yoy but is also moderating at 0.31% mom.

Inflation could still hover above 7%yoy in the coming months, but moderating price pressure will add support to our view that the market is bottoming out. In fact, whilst inflation may only ease off towards mid-2Q (as 3/4 of last year inflation happened in 2H), the market may be starting to price that in. In addition, the bond market that rallied by some 15bps across the board from offshore buying, may also lead the central bank to hold off rate hike from currently 6.75% this month. Indeed, BI's stance in allowing Rupiah to appreciate, close to the strongest level in four years, may also ease off the pressure of any immediate rate hike. The fact that FX reserve increase ytd since last year, at US$30bn, more than double the inflow of hot-money, thanks to record FDI inflow and current account surplus, lends support to BI's stance of stronger Rupiah.

We continue to believe that the economic fundamentals remains sound, and any impact of inflation to earnings should be muted (see "Assessing the moving parts" - 23-Feb-2011). Oil price remains the main market risk - but as long as Rupiah stability holds, the transmission to the real economy is limited (see "Can history repeat itself?" - 24-Feb-11). As inflationary pressure starts to somewhat ease off, we anticipate the market to focus again on the robust fundamentals. Our stock picks are geared towards the beneficiaries of credit growth, stronger Rupiah and the consumer demographics profile, which has just seen second largest job growth on record last year on the back of investment surge.

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