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Minggu, 24 Juli 2011

Medco Energi (MEDC) – Readying itself for M&A activities? (MEDC, Rp2,325, Neutral, TP:Rp3,200) - Mandiri

􀂄 We visited the company yesterday and found several key points to highlight. First, management changes in the company is on-going. Second, the company launched a standby loan facility of US$500mn recently. Given the big amount, we suspect that the company is readying itself for M&A, hearing that a number of large oil and gas blocks in Indonesia could be put on sale. MEDC’s current leverage level is still comfortable at 1.2x as of 1Q11.
􀂄 Third, Senoro project is showing good progress. To recap, the gas sales agreement (GSA) for Senoro-Toili was signed in Jan-09, for total volume of 250 mmscfd (MEDC’s part). The GSA complements the LNG head of agreement (HOA) at the downstream side promising 2.1 Mt p.a. LNG export to Japan. In Jan-11 the final investment decision (FID) and US$2.8bn financing was obtained. Since then, the project development has reached 18% completion.
􀂄 Fourth, there could be upside production surprise (liquids) from Rimau field in year 2012. MEDC has kicked-off its enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project for Rimau. EOR is a fairly new technology that is showing success around the region. Of its total reserves in Rimau, the company has extracted around 31% of its potential. With water injection, the company can take out up to 39% of its potential. With EOR, MEDC can take out up to 54%. The good news is that the government policy favours EOR activities. All capex relating to EOR is cost recoverable.
􀂄 MEDC appears cheap on EV/2P reserves of US$5.0/boe (average regional peers: US$13.5/boe) and PER11F 14.3x (average peers: 20.1x). We currently have Neutral rating on MEDC.

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