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Kamis, 28 Juli 2011

Sarana Menara Nusantara: Buy; Rp5,550; TP Rp6,200; TOWR IJ; Encouraging result, huge upside potential - DBS

At a Glance
 2Q11 EBITDA of Rp337 bn (+14% y-o-y, +9% q-o-q) was towards the upper end of expectations. 1H11 EBITDA comprises over 46% of FY11F forecast
 Added 375 towers & 682 tenants in 2Q11, significantly higher than 1Q11.
 Maintain BUY for 40% upside potential to Rp15,000TP

Comment on Results
EBITDA of Rp337 bn (+14% y-o-y) was towards the upper end of expectations as EBITDA margins of 83.5% was above our 83% estimate. 1H11 EBITDA of Rp 645 bn comprises 46.3% of our FY11F forecast, implying upside potential to our forecast. Strong tower addition mainly from Telkomsel & XL. TOWR added 375 towers (versus 100 towers in 1Q11) and 682 tenants (290 in 1Q11) in 2Q11. Despite the tower addition spree, tenancy ratio was stable at 1.75x (1.76 in 1Q11). Telkomsel & XL accounted for 50%
& 20% of tower additions respectively.

Strong pipeline to meet or exceed our expectations. TOWR disclosed a strong pipeline of 1299 towers (versus 1536 in 1Q11). Pipeline is typically strongest in 1Q as telcos plan and award contracts. Out of 1299 towers, about 466 would be built to suite (BTS) towers and rest to be acquired from Hutch and other players.
The pipeline of 1299 towers is good enough to meet or exceed our expectations of 675 towers to be added in 2H11F.

Recommendation
Potential upside of 40%. Our DCF-based target price of Rp15,000 (WACC 11.5%, terminal growth 4%), implies over 40% potential upside. TOWR is trading at 11.6x FY11F EV/EBITDA while offering 20% EBITDA CAGR over FY11F-13F. This is at ~30% discount to US and local peers, which trade at average of 16x EV/EBITDA despite much weaker growth prospects for US peers.

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