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Kamis, 28 Juli 2011

Bukit Asam: Better picture on the new railway project (PTBA, Rp21,050, Neutral, TP: Rp23,950) - Mandiri

We met with Mr Rudiantara, President Director of Transpacific Railway Infrastructure - Key person from Rajawali Group, yesterday. He is very friendly and nice guy. We were impressed with his concise explanation on the JV's integrated coal railway project structure and some key challenges issues. Below are the highlights:
􀂄 Rajawali’s solid teams will solve “LLL” issues. License, Land acquisition and Loan (LLL) are the main key factors in this project. Solid team from Rajawali will help solving these issues. 7 out of 8 regency permits have been obtained and 2 province permits are still in process. Railway permit also has been obtained and it is an achievement in Indonesia coal industry history, since until now there are only 2 railway permits have been released, includes railway project in East Kalimantan. Pilot project of 1 km plus 100 m corridor railway line have been successfully done. 50 teams from Rajawali are ready for the land acquisition execution.
􀂄 Financing closure. BATR will appoint Standard Chartered Bank as the financial advisor, and Chinese Bank will act as the lenders. Mr Rudiantara has strong relationship and good track record with Chinese banker, which had successfully helped raising fund up to US$4bn debt while He joined in PT PLN. He highlighted that he could get net cost of debt for the project financing about 4 – 5% pa. The financial closure deadline is around end of this year.
􀂄 …but some obstacles remain. The crucial obstacle currently is on the coal mining operations structure under PT Bukit Asam Banko (BAB), JV Company with PTBA, with main issue on the coal selling price. Beside that Rajawali Group is also in a renegotiation process with China Railway Engineering to change some critical terms agreement, such as “Train Availability and Reliability Agreement” (TARA) to mitigate future logistic risk.
􀂄 It’s a matter of time unlocking the treasure. Notwithstanding all those obstales, Mr Rudiantara is quite confidence with PTBA’s prospect thank to its abundant coal reserves. Once the logistic problem solved, the treasure will be unlocked and monetized, earnings potentially rise by fourfolds. He expects the project will commence in early 2015.
􀂄 Currently we still have Neutral rating on the stock and we are likely to upgrade our earnings forecast and rating. PTBA is traded at 14.2x-10.8x PER11F-12F.

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