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Minggu, 24 Juli 2011

Delta Dunia: Key takeaways meeting with Buma’s CFO (DOID, Rp1,010, Buy, TP: Rp1,400) - Mandiri

􀂄 Yesterday, we met with Buma’s CFO, Mr Sujoko Martin. We believe with +18 years experience in Astra Group with last position as Finance and Accounting Director in UNTR’s subsidiary, He could bring significant contribution to the company. He joined Buma in October 2010. It was the first time he met with analyst and he is very friendly. Below are the highlights:
􀂄 He highlighted that there should be no issue in changing their depreciation method from Double Declining (DD) to Straight Line (SL). However, they need to review the cost and benefit of changing it. Afterward they plan to seek approval from Board of Commisioner within 2-3 months.
􀂄 He highlighted that investment decision should not merely affected by accounting policy since it could create many some distortion and not comparable to peers. He reiterated that in operation level Buma will have strong improvement and good prospect.
􀂄 Up to June 2011, Buma has spent US$90mn for capex. While the remaining US$160 – 170mn will be spent in 2H11F. However, should be noted that most of the capex are for old fleet replacement that is no longer productive. Buma is in a expansion phase and there is possibility FY11F capex increase up to US$280-290mn from earlier budget of US$250- 260mn.
􀂄 There are several factors that could squeeze BUMA’s EBIT margin this year: o Significant higher depreciation cost following replacement and new capex investment o Full maintenance cost (FMC) provision with its suppliers followed by higher spare part cost vs previously done internally
o Labor force expansion. Buma is recruiting more than 1,000 people. Currently, total employees including labor in pit reach around 12,000 people
o Hauling distance increase by 17-18% yoy to 2.2km that could reduce productivity
􀂄 In 3Q11, OB removal capacity is expected to reach 31-32mn bcm/month and possible to increase up to 33-34mn bcm/month in 4Q11 (subject to weather condition) vs 26-28mn bcm/month in 2Q11.
􀂄 Currently we are still reviewing our forecast and prefer to wait its actual 2Q11results.

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