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Jumat, 29 Juli 2011

Corporate Result Flash United Tractors - Bahana

2Q11 performance
§ On lower 2Q11 Komatsu sales of 2,126 units (-3.7% q-q), UNTR registered lower 2Q11 earnings of IDR1.2t (-4.2% q-q), bringing 1H11 net profit to IDR2.5t (+35% y-y), in line with our and consensus estimates.
§ UNTR’s 2Q11 operating profit fell 3.4% q-q to IDR1.6t, translating to 1H11 operating income of IDR3.3t (+26% y-y), still on track to meet our 2011 target of IDR6.7t (+28.9% y-y). On the margin front, while construction machinery unit booked lower 2Q11 margin of 14% (from 16% in 1Q11), less rainfalls helped Pama to register significant margin improvement to 13.1% from 9.6% in 1Q11. This provided some cushion on UNTR’s 2Q11 operating margin contraction to just 17% from 17.6% in 1Q11.
§ Higher 2Q11 overburden removal of 18.5% q-q to 198m bcm on Pama compensated lower income from construction machinery, resulting in slightly higher consolidated revenue of IDR13.0t, up 2.5% q-q. This brought 1H11 revenue to IDR25.6t (+41.7% y-y), in line with our and consensus forecasts.

Given solid performance in 1H11 and outlook of improved volumes in the following quarters, UNTR is poised to register 2011 earnings growth of 30% y-y to IDR5.2t. We expect positive impact from the recent rights issue to unfold in 2012, allowing UNTR to secure sustainable growth through expansions in the coal-related units.

Recommendation and valuation
We are placing UNTR’s target price under review given just 2% upside potential. Additionally, we plan to revisit our 2012 earnings forecast and roll over our valuation into next year.

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