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Kamis, 28 Juli 2011

PTBA:Boosted by export - Mandiri

PTBA produced 6.2Mt of coal in 1H11 or represent only 41.3% from its internal FY11 production guidance of 15Mt. Its coal railway delivery was 41.5% of total 13.6Mt planned in FY11. Strong earnings in 2Q11 was mostly driven by export coal selling price that reached a record high of US$103/ton in 2Q11 (+20%qoq) or US$98.8/ton in 1H11 (+62%yoy). Upbeat on coal price outlook, supported by Japan coal contract repricing in April following tsunami disaster, and robust seaborne coal demand lead us to upgrade our coal benchmark to US$120/ton onwards from previously US$115/ton. Rolling valuation into 2012 also lead us to upgrade our TP from Rp23,950/share previously to Rp27,000/share implying 13.0x PER12F and 28.3% upside. Assigning 50% probability to the new railway project could add DCF-NAV by Rp3,800/share, but we leave it as an upside potential until we get more certainty on the execution. Upgraded to Buy.

Strong earnings growth in 2Q11. PTBA posted 1H11 revenue of Rp5,119bn (+34.9%yoy, +21.1% qoq) followed by net profit of Rp1,611bn (+77.4%yoy, +11.9%qoq) in line with our expectation. Mostly was driven by strong export selling price where export revenue jumped 50% yoy (+40%qoq) vs domestic of 27%yoy (+10%qoq). Lower operating margin in 2Q11 is expected following higher salaries due to bonus payment, higher trading activities and higher fuel price.

Delay on new locomotives deliveries. Company has indicated delay on the arrival of new locomotives and trains which is now expected to arrive in mid September 2011 from previously in August 2011. This will give a stronger downside risk indication on its volume target. However, we have anticipated this issue and took more conservative FY11 target of 14Mt, 10% lower than the company’s target. But delivery risk remains since it is beyond PTBA’s control.

Minor earning forecast changes. Despite higher coal benchmark, we only expect higher increase in ASP for its coal export than domestic, which have lower portion of total sales volume. The rupiah’s appreciation factor and higher fuel cost partially offset the earnings upgrade. We only increased our FY11F-12F net profit by 0.6%% and 7.8% to Rp3,439bn and Rp4,865bn respectively.

Strong upside, upgrade Buy. Rajawali has a crucial role to help PTBA unlocking its hidden gem. We believe partnership with Rajawali Group would augur the new railway project (please see our meeting key takeaways with Mr Rudiantara on page 2).. However, being conservative, we leave it as upside potential. Rolling into 2012 valuation, PTBA trades attractively at 10.0x PER12F. Our new target price is based on Blended valuation method combining DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples.

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