Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Jumat, 29 Juli 2011

Corporate Flash Bank Central Asia - Bahana

Breakthrough
§ Effective June 2011, Jahja Setiaatmadja has officially become the President Director of Bank Central Asia (BBCA), replacing Djohan Emir Setijoso. Jahja previously served as Deputy President, having joined the bank in 1990. We believe that his extensive experience and knowledge would mean continued solid performance for BBCA.
§ In the past several analysts’ meetings, Jahja always pointed out the bank’s outstanding loan performance. Being a transactional banking, BBCA has greater flexibility to grow its credit ahead of the industry’s average in the past with the exception of 2006 (exhibit 6). Hence, we believe BBCA is likely to continue beefing up its loan portfolio, allowing us to raise BBCA’s loan growth assumption.
§ BBCA’s recent formal written agreement with Nahdatul Ulama (NU), the largest Islamic organization nationwide with around 70m members, is a breakthrough in our view. With BBCA as the “official” bank of NU, we believe this tie up will help enhance the bank’s medium to long-long term goals of achieving higher fee-based income as well as interest income.

Outlook
Supported by its highly competitive funding structure, BBCA has tremendous room to expand its loan across all segments. Its aggressive expansion in the consumer loans has positioned the bank as the largest non-subsidized mortgage provider with 12% market share. The Central Bank’s proposal to lower the risk weighted assets for mortgage to 35% from 40% (effective 2012) would undoubtedly help BBCA’s CAR, in addition to its plan to issue subordinated notes.

Recommendation and valuation
Despite the recent rally in BBCA’s share price, we believe its premium valuation remains warranted given solid fundamentals, high ROE of nearly 25% and unbeatable loan quality. Hence, we believe downside in the price is limited, particularly as we have upgraded our 2011-12 earnings expectations by 5.1% and 9.4% respectively on higher 2011-12 loan growth assumption of 21-20% from 18-16% previously. Using 2012 valuation, we have raised our target price to IDR9,700 (+24.3%), reflecting 4.8x implied 2012 P/BV. BUY.

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