Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Kamis, 28 Juli 2011

Property still going strong - CLSA

"We like investments where the risk is time, not price"
- Richard Chandler -

In an interview with Institutional Investors magazine in 2006, the reclusive legendary Chandler brothers, founders of Sovereign Global Investment reveal their strategies that built a US$5bn+ (back then) fortune (from US$10mn family fortune) in just two decades. Their key competitive advantage is their ability to take a very long term view of "risky" markets.

Indonesian property stocks have been a big laggard but that has not been the case for physical property (still considered risky by many) as land prices have moved up a lot in the last 12-24 months. We have flagged this latest trend numerous times in the past but here are a couple of latest anecdotes:

Bekasi, east of Jakarta, a personal experience. Land prices here have gone up by at least 40% YTD. One of our colleagues, after months of watching prices move up, finally closed the transaction – but 40% more expensive when first offered in the market. Our co-worker made the decision after learning that an independent appraiser confirmed the value of the house - BCA mortgage is the most conservative when appraising.
Cipete, south of Jakarta, an expat favorite. Green and lushes Cipete has long been a favorite amongst expatriates. Only three months ago, land prices here were around US$700-800 psm. That has now gone up to US$900-1000 psm.
Senayan, central Jakarta. My friend’s house in Senayan Residence cost Rp 3 billion two years ago. Market price of the house is now worth at least Rp 8 billion ($944,000).
It’s not often that fundamentals improve ahead of being priced in equities. Property stocks have started to re-rate only very recently. We believe that property is a secular story still has a long way to go. With a stronger currency, growing middle class, lower cost of funding, and very low mortgage to GDP (CIMB Niaga just took it one notch up as the bank is offering 10 years fixed rate, 10% down payment with 20 years tenor - by far the most aggressive mortgage product out there) - all stars are now aligned for continued strong operational performance.

So what are the plays? We like property developers with large landbanks acquired long time ago (assets not revalued per annum as there’s a capital gain tax). This is because as land prices continue to soar, the margins will continue to expand.

Bumi Serpong (BSDE IJ) is a nice example – It has the largest quality landbank in the western area of Jakarta – and seen its gross margins expanding to almost 50% (from 25% just a few years ago). This means that developers with large landbanks have a lot of leverage to NAV appreciation.

BUY developers with large landbanks: Bumi Serpong (BSDE IJ), Ciputra Surya (CTRS IJ), Bakrieland (ELTY IJ) and Lippo Cikarang (LPCK IJ).

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar