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Jumat, 29 Juli 2011

2Q11 results: Largely in line with our estimates - Credit Suisse

● Astra Agro 2Q11 net income grew by 69% YoY, but was down 6% QoQ to Rp616 bn, leading 6M11 net income to Rp1,270 bn (+99% YoY), which was in line, at 49% of our FY11 earnings estimate and 48% of consensus’.
● We believe that negative QoQ growth in Astra Agro’s 2Q11 bottom line was largely due to lower CPO average selling price, which was down 6% QoQ in 2Q11, and also due to flat CPO sales volume on a QoQ basis.
● Astra Agro’s 1H11 CPO output was 49% of our FY11 estimates, after experienced positive output growth started from 4Q10A. However, we find that AALI’s June 2011 CPO output was relatively flat on a MoM basis. We foresee more balance production contribution between 1H and 2H throughout this year.
● We maintain our NEUTRAL rating and target price of Rp26,000 for Astra Agro. AALI is currently trading at the highest 2011E and 2012E P/E amongst all Indonesian CPO plantation companies under our coverage.

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