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Rabu, 27 Juli 2011

Bukit Asam (PTBA, O, PT Rp26,500): 2Q11 Results: Higher Cost But Offset by Strong Export ASP - Credit Suisse

e like PTBA amid its rather simple and straight-forward coal business, although we are not too keen on company’s execution ability. PTBA 1H11 results is satisfactory, in our opinion, and we feel the downside on its 2011 earnings is limited. With the expected pick up in coal production and selling price in 3Q11, we are a buyer of PTBA at this stage.

· PTBA 1H11 net profit came-in at Rp1.6 tn (+12% QoQ, +77% YoY) – 42% and 44% of our and consensus 2011 forecast respectively.
· PTBA 1H11 revenue stood at Rp5.1 tn (+21% QoQ, +35% YoY) – 44% of our 2011 forecast – supported by higher sales volume of 6.5 mn tons (+4.4% QoQ, +1.6% YoY) and blended ASP of US$89/ton (+13% QoQ, +39% YoY).
· Despite higher production cost in 2Q11, PTBA’s gross, operating and net margin expanded by 100-200bps during the period to 53%, 39% and 31% respectively.
· Analyst Fonny Surya believes that the risk from PT Kereta Api locomotives delivery delay in September 2011 is priced-in into PTBA’s 2011 forecast.

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