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Minggu, 24 Juli 2011

Indocement (INTP IJ), Java’s Cement King - CLSA

Di Shui sees room for volume driven earnings upside in FY11 and FY12 based on Indocement (INTP IJ)’s dominance in high growth Java markets.

Ideally a cement plant should be set up not far from market or raw materials (quarries). And Java has both but the reality is that it is hard to clear the land in heavily populated Java. That means INTP’s domination is West and Central Java will likely to stay.

Key points from the report:
INTP to release 2Q11 earnings July 31; we anticipate revenue growth from higher domestic sales volume (+16% QoQ, +20% YoY).
Margin compression from higher energy costs (~50% of COGS). The latter has been a drag on share price performance.
We’re optimistic margins can recover on stabilizing energy tariffs and an increase in ASP.
Java is leading the surge in cement demand. Java cement demand is up 19% YoY, making up 55% of the Indonesian market. INTP is the most dominant producer in these regions, with 42-58% market share.
INTP has ample capacity to capitalize on its geographic region. Utilization of 78% in 1H11 is lower than peers (SMCB at 89%, SMGR at 97%), and can rise to 90% in 2H11.
INTP’s capacity requires capex of US$40/ton vs. $167/ton for SMGR’s 5m tons in 1Q12 and $265/ton for SMCB’s 1.7m tons in 1Q14. Brownfield vs. Greenfield expansion.

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