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Rabu, 27 Juli 2011

PT Bukit Asam - 1H'11 NP up by 77% YoY - Deutsche

Solid QoQ volumes; record high export ASP
2Q'11 revenues: +21%QoQ, +39%YoY; EBIT +9%QoQ, +65%YoY; Reported NP +12%QoQ, +59%YoY. Positive QoQ trend reflected higher volumes, while higher ASP balanced higher costs. 2Q'11 production and sales volume rose by 6% and 13%QoQ. Domestic ASP +5%QoQ to Rp777K/t, while export ASP +23%QoQ to a record USD108/t in-line with the Japanese contract repricings in April'11. These helped compensate for higher fuel price which resulted in COGS/ton increase of 12%QoQ.

1H'11 margins in-line; volumes imply 2H'11 rail ramp-up
PTBA recorded 1H'11 revenues of Rp5.1tr (+35%YoY) and NP of Rp1.6tr (+77YoY), achieving 42% of DB FY11 forecast and 44% of consensus estimates. 1H'11 margins were generally in-line with our FY forecast (see table below), with some upside risk if export ASP increase further in subsequent quarters.

However production (6.2mT or +6%YoY) achieved 40% of our FY forecast of 15.6mT, implying expectation of production ramp-up in 2H'11 depending on the arrival timing of the new locomotives. There is risk of delay in the arrival to Sep, which would affect 7% of our current total production forecast at the worst (which would still imply a +20%YoY growth). Hence we still maintain our target volume, as company maintains its guidance. We retain our Buy recommendation on PTBA. We consider its valuation of EV/Reserve of below US$3/t attractive compared to peer average of US$11/t.

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