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Kamis, 28 Juli 2011

Bank Danamon: Hold (prev Fully Valued); Rp5,350; TP5,700 Rp; BDMN IJ Negatives partially priced in - DBS

• Rights price ranges between Rp4,100-Rp4,800 (13-25% discount); ex-date on 8 Sep 2011
• Estimated FY12 EPS dilution of 13% while Total CAR would increase to 18-19% (2Q11: 14%)
• Upgrade to Hold on valuations; TP lifted to Rp5,700 as we roll over our valuation base to 2012.

Rights issue details and pro-forma impact (13% EPS dilution; 4ppts capital ratio improvement). In the abridged prospectus, BDMN’s rights price ranges between Rp4,100-Rp4,800, equivalent to a 13-25% discount to the last closing price. This compares to a 19.5% discount for BBNI’s rights in Dec-10 and 11.5% discount for BMRI’s rights in Feb-11(market conditions were soft in Feb-11). We estimate EPS dilution of 13% in FY12. Post rights, Tier-1 CAR would improve to 17%-18% (2Q11: 13.7%), while Total CAR would increase to 18%-19% (2Q11: 14.2%).

The difference with the previous rights issue. BDMN’s rights proceeds would be used to improve funding and to boost growth particularly in micro, SME as well as auto financing. BDMN saw a significant improvement in its earnings and ROE in 2010, the year after the previous rights issue. The difference now is the shift in asset mix (towards SME loans which are lower yielding) with the hope to improve its deposit franchise over time. BDMN excels in asset growth, especially in the mass market segment, but it still lags its peers in deposits. Management has initiated plans to improve its deposit franchise but it would be a 2 to 3 year journey at least. Meanwhile, NIM may continue to slide and incremental ROE would not be great.

Upgrade to Hold on valuations; TP lifted to Rp5,700. Share price has weakened over the past week since the announcement of its rights issue. At current valuations of 1.9x FY12 BV, we upgrade BDMN to HOLD. We note that 1H11 earnings were weak but we do expect a stronger 2H11. As we roll over our valuation base to 2012, our revised Rp5,700 TP is equivalent to 2.1x FY12 BV based on a lower sustainable ROE of 20% (pre-rights), 10% growth and 15% cost of equity.

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