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Jumat, 29 Juli 2011

Ahead 2Q BBNI, Upgrade Target Price Rp5,250 - reit Buy BBNI - Credit Suisse

Indonesia Equity Sales
CS Indo: Ahead 2Q BBNI, Upgrade Target Price Rp5,250 - reit Buy BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA (BBNI) Report: Ahead robust 2Q11 +63%YoY NP - Upgrade EPS/TP- reit Buy!

Compared to disappointing BDMN, in-line rather soft BBTN, BBNI above expectation 2Q NP +63%YoY is best, better than BTPN 2Q NP +53%YoY. At Rp4,175- BBNI is trading on 13.3x-10.4x 2011F-12F PER on the back of EPS Growth of 19%-28%, 2.0x-1.7x 2011F-12F PBR on the back of RoE 16.4%-18.1%, and implied 26% Upside to upgraded Target Price Rp5,250/share. Figure 3 page 2 shows that on 2012F PER valuation BBNI is cheaper than our preferred banks BBRI, BBTN, BMRI and the best fundamental but most premium BBCA. Teddy's Strategy in scenario of rapid investment growth (post land reform bill passed by Parliament expected 4Q11-1H12) include BBNI (as well as BMRI, SMGR and UNTR)! We reiterate Buy BBNI.

· Teddy Oetomo (Report attached): BBNI reported 63% YoY, 18% QoQ, 2Q11A earnings growth, 14% YoY, 14% QoQ 2Q11A PPOP growth. 1H11A PPOP was up by 14%, 45% of our FY11E while earnings were up by 41%YoY, 49% of our FY11E and 52% of consensus' expectations. BBNI's YTD loans growth improved from 3% in 1Q11A to 13% in 2Q11A, implying that the bank is on schedule for achieving higher growth ahead. BBNI's 2Q11A earnings are supported by robust recovery. The 1H11A saw Rp879 bn recovery, with gross NPL ratio having improved from 4.1% in 1Q11A to 4.0% in 2Q11A while provision coverage improved from 122.1% to 122.5% during the period.

· We tweak up FY11E loans growth to 21% from 15%, we also tweak down FY11E provision expense by 7% on the back of robust assets quality. Net net, we tweak up our FY11E-13E earnings by 2.8%-4.8%. We tweak up our target price to Rp5,250 from Rp5,000 for BBNI. Our target price for BBNI is derived based on Gordon's growth model, implying 16.7x 11E P/E, 2.5x 11E P/B, 13.1x 12E P/E, and 2.2x 12E P/B.

· The stock price of BBNI had lagged its local peers until recently given (1) we believe market remains partly sceptical with BBNI's ability to complete its operational restructuring and (2) market's expectation for relatively softer growth by BBNI in FY11E relative to peers. However, we believe BBNI's 2Q11A results underlie the bank's improvement fundamentals and offer evidence for stronger growth, potentially improving market's sentiment ahead. We believe BBNI continues to exhibit robust fundamentals, and valuations remain relatively undemanding. Currently, BBNI is trading at fourth lowest P/E and P/B relative to its local peers. We maintain our OUTPERFORM on BBNI.

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