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Kamis, 28 Juli 2011

Astra Agro Lestari: Hold; Rp23,450; TP Rp25,150; AALI IJ; 2Q11 earnings in line - DBS

At a Glance
 2Q11 earnings slipped 6% q-o-q, in-line with our expectations
 CPO sales volume was flat at c.283k MT (-1% q-o-q, +11% y-o-y) in 2Q11
 Excluding cash advance, cash conversion cycle has inched higher
 Maintain Hold with limited 7% upside to our TP

Comment on Results
Astra Agro Lestari’s (AALI) 2Q11 net profit came in at Rp615b (-6% q-o-q, +69% y-o-y), translating to 1H11 bottomline of Rp1.27b (+51% y-o-y). This represented 47% of our full year forecast and thus in line with our expectations. Despite higher
output, sales volume growth was flat due to higher inventory (i.e. delays in presold shipments). Reported topline of Rp2.53b (-8% q-o-q, +34% y-o-y) was dragged by 7% q-o-q lower ASP due to higher export taxes (vs. Rp8,278/kg in 1Q11).

Sequentially, gross margin remained unchanged at c.39% however, thanks to seasonally higher yield. Including smallholders, FFB yield rose from 5.5 MT/ha in 1Q11 to 6.4 MT/ha in 2Q11. Cost of sales declined 8% q-o-q to Rp1.55b (+27% y-o-y) commensurate with lower unit cost. AALI reported 31% q-o-q higher 3rd party FFB purchases, which contributed to higher 2Q11 raw materials and processing costs
(accounting for c.54% share), followed by harvesting and maintenance costs at c.33%. As at end of Jun11, AALI’s total planted area was c.264k ha (including smallholder estates). The group remained debt free. Excluding advances from customers, cash conversion cycle increased to 22 days from 10 days. Including advances, however, AALI had negative working capital.

Recommendation
We expect the group CPO output to increase c.5% y-o-y to 1.2m MT next year, which is inadequate to weather an anticipated 20% drop in FY12F ASP. We maintain Hold for its limited 7% upside to our DCF-based TP of Rp25,150, which implies 16.8x FY12F PE.

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