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Selasa, 26 Juli 2011

Investors Raise Bullish Commodity Bets by Most in Year as Economy Expands - Bloomberg

Funds boosted bets on rising commodity prices by the most in almost a year on speculation that the global economic recovery will prove resilient.Speculators raised their net-long positions in 18 commodities by 16 percent to 1.26 million futures and options contracts in the week ended July 19, government data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the biggest gain since early August. Bullish silver holdings climbed to the highest since May 3.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index rose for a fourth consecutive week, climbing to a one-month high on July 21. Commodity prices have gained even as the U.S. and Europe contend with debt crises. The MSCI World Index of equities gained 2.7 percent last week as European leaders announced a plan to stem the turmoil.
“There will be a pick-up in U.S. growth and also in Japanese growth in the third quarter,” Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps manage $17 billion of assets at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama, said in a phone interview. “We haven’t seen any evidence of a hard landing in China. If there is some type of resolution in Europe, even if it’s a short-term one, that could create a boost too.”

European leaders announced a 159 billion-euro ($229 billion) aid plan for Greece on July 21, allaying concern that the sovereign-debt crisis will spread. U.S. President Barack Obama and Congress failed to reach a deal on raising the debt limit. U.S. House Speaker John Boehner plans to press ahead with a two-step debt-limit extension that Obama has threatened to veto, fueling concern the nation is lurching toward a default as early as Aug. 2 and jeopardizing its AAA credit rating.

Futures and Options
Hedge funds and other money managers lifted their net-long silver position by 19 percent to 24,740 futures and options contracts, the third straight gain, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
The metal will reach a record $70 an ounce by March as physical demand climbs in Asia and investors seek a haven asset, Mike Frawley, the global head of metals at Newedge USA LLC, said in an interview last week. Silver prices rallied 2.7 percent to $40.122 an ounce on the Comex in New York last week. The all- time high was $50.35 reached in January 1980.

Investors also increased their net gold holdings by 7.3 percent to 238,319 contracts, the most since October 2009. The metal advanced to a record $1,624.30 an ounce in trading today. Holdings in crude oil jumped 8 percent to 182,285 contracts, the most since June.

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