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Kamis, 28 Juli 2011

SARANA MENARA (TOWR): In-line strong 2Q EBITDA (+20% YoY) – reit Buy on both organic & inorganic - Credit Suisse

Both TOWR and TBIG (@Rp2,350 on 13.8x-10.5x 2011F-12F EV/EBITDA & implied 16% Upside to DCF Rp2,725, Neutral; please see attached previous Daily) are competing to bid for ISAT’s towers. At Rp11,000, TOWR is trading on 11.9x-9.8x 2011F-12F EV/EBITDA and implied 32% Upside to DCF Rp14,500, therefore we reiterate Buy TOWR!

· Colin McCallum, CA (Daily attached): TOWR’s revenue grew by 9.3% QoQ and 19.2% YoY in 2Q11, driven by the addition of 375 new towers. Operational gearing continued to work in TOWR’s favour, with EBITDA margins remaining flat QoQ at 83.5%, but rising from 2Q10’s 82.8% level. Rising EBITDA, together with lower net interest costs, resulted in net profit before forex growing by an impressive 40.3% QoQ to Rp73 bn, and more than tripling YoY. TOWR’s net debt to annualised EBITDA ratio also fell from 3.6x in 1Q11 to only 3.1x in 2Q11.

· The core business model is that the tenancy ratio on newly constructed towers should rise over time. We believe that there are strong drivers in this direction, given ongoing growth in voice, SMS and particularly data traffic volumes in Indonesia . Furthermore, government regulations actively encourage shared tenancy of towers and support independent tower operators. We forecast that tenancy will reach 2.55x by FY20, and our DFC based target price remains Rp14,500. Maintain OUTPERFORM.

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