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Jumat, 29 Juli 2011

Corporate Result Flash Bank Bukopin - Bahana

2Q11 performance
§ BBKP reported 1H11 net profit of IDR337b (+50.8% y-y), above our and market consensus, accounting for 54% of our full-year and market estimates. Note that the strong 1H11 ROAE of 20.7% has not fully factored in the impact of the rights issue.
§ 2Q net profit increased 16.7% q-q to IDR181b, supported by strong loan growth, higher fee-based income and lower provisioning charges. NPL dipped from 3.7% at end 1Q11 to 3.0% at end 2Q11.
§ Loans grew 21.3% q-q to IDR32t in 2Q11, bringing ytd loan growth to 5.7%. This strong loan growth was driven by commercial and SME loans while loans to related-party Bulog, the state-owned logistics agency, only accounted for 9.4% of loan portfolio. This combined with low 1.2% q-q growth in deposits raised LDR to 72% in 2Q11 from 60% in 1Q11.

Outlook
Despite solid 2Q11 results, BBKP still has many challenges: 1) managing liquidity flow, 2) maintaining loan quality and 3) enhancing capital base. BBKP’s 2Q11 strong loan growth has pressured 2Q11 CAR to 14.8% from 16.7% in 1Q11 on higher risk weighted assets from non-Bulog SME and commercial loans. That said, issuance of subordinated notes to raise CAR is on the cards. On a positive note, apart from the current strategic partnerships with Taspen and Jamsostek pension funds, allowing for loan penetration, the bank is currently negotiating with ASABRI, the military insurance company.

Recommendation and valuation
Earlier loan growth recovery and improved NPLs have encouraged us to upgrade our 2011-12 earnings estimates by 11-12% respectively. In addition, we shift our valuation using 2012 book value resulting in higher target price of IDR920 (+18%), reflecting 2012 implied P/BV of 1.8x. With more than 15% upside, we upgrade our rating on BBKP from hold to BUY.

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