NISP Sekuritas Daily 21 Jan 2011 (Economy, BMRI, BUMI, ISAT, MASA)

Government delays increase in import duty for a year

·          The government has decided to delay increase in 57 food commodity related tariffs which includes wheat, feed material and fertilizer, for a year after increasing it last December. This step is taken to curb inflation due price increases.

·          This follows the erasing of import duty for rice in early January. 

·          We consider the impact is neutral to the current inflation outlook since it only reverses the previous increase in December. Head of BPS shared that inflation in January may increase by 0.5% MoM following rice price that have increased by 1.3% in the past 3 weeks. This translates into 6.60% YoY inflation.

Bumi revenue indicates 50% YoY revenue increase (BUMI, Rp3,050, Buy),

·          Bumi Resources indicated that revenue in 2010 may have reached US$4.8bn from US$3.2bn in 2009. The company sold 60-61mn tons with ASP at US$70 per ton. If realized, this makes results 17.1% above consensus expectation of US$4.1bn and our expectation for US$3.7bn.  

·          This year the company targets revenue to increase by 10% YoY to US$5.2bn in line with coal price that is expected to increase also by 10%. While sales and production volume is expected to increase to 66mn and 67mn tons.

·          The company did not share net income projection. 

·          BUMI is trading at 2011F PER of 14.4x and EV/EBITDA of 5.6x, Buy.

Bank Mandiri may book Rp8.50tn net income in 2010 (BMRI, Rp5,800)

·          The Minister of SOE, Mustafa Abubakar, indicated Bank Mandiri may have booked a record net income, booking Rp8.5tn in 2010. If realized, this is in line with consensus expectation of Rp8.67tn.

·          Previously the Minister also indicated that Bank Mandiri and Bank Rakyat Indonesia booked a total of Rp17.00tn of net income in 2010, opening possibility that Bank Rakyat Indonesia may also have booked Rp8.50tn in 2010.

·          In other news, another Ministry of SOE official stated that Bank Mandiri’s right issue may have oversubscribed more than 2x. Therefore discount to the new shares could be limited. Price will be set on January 24, 2011.

·          BMRI is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 11.7x and PBV of 2.5x.

Indosat indicates 2010 revenue rose by 12% YoY (ISAT, Rp5,000)

·          Indosat indicated that its revenue in 2010 may have reached Rp20.60tn from Rp18.39tn in 2009, or up by 12.0% YoY. The company’s subscribers reached 50 mn subscribers from previously 33mn subscribers.

·          Management did not share bottom line projection.

·          Consensus expectation is for Rp20.09tn.

·          ISAT is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 17.8x and EV/EBITDA of 4.5x.

Multistrada to maintain margins (MASA, Rp295)

·          Multistrada Arah Sarana, has increased  price by 7.5%-15% to compensate for rising increases of rubber, synthetic rubber, and steel wire. The new pricing has been applied since the beginning of this year, where local pricing has increased by 10%-15% while export pricing has increased by 7.5%.

·          The company is targeting daily capacity to increase by 28.6% to 22,500 car tires in 1H11 and to 28,500 tires by the end of this year, from currently 17,500 car tires per day.

·          MASA is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 7.8x and EV/EBITDA of 4.4x.