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Selasa, 18 Januari 2011

MACQUARIE RESEARCH Harum Energy (Outperform) - Set to steam in 2011

Event
§                          We reiterate our Outperform recommendation on Harum Energy and raise our price target from Rp8,000 to Rp11,500, representing 24% upside to the current share price. This is on the back of our global commodities team upgrading their thermal coal price forecast by about 20-38% to US$145/t (JPY11) and US$120/t (JPY12), which we believe is about US$20/t above consensus. This leads us to be 30-60% above consensus in 2011-12.

Impact
§                          D ifferentiated thermal coal view . Consensus believes that coal prices have peaked; however we see the potential for continued supply disruptions, coking coal producers prioritising coking coal vs. thermal through the supply chain, and thermal coal being upsold into PCI/Semi-soft markets leading to shortage in 2011. In 2012 we expect the market to remain tight due to strong Indonesian and Indian demand, which combined with increasing Chinese costs should lead to robust Chinese imports.
§                          2011 production remains on-track. Our recent conversation with the company suggests that it remains on-track to increase its production from 7.3mt in 2010 to about 10.5mt in 2011 (the company is currently producing about 700kt per month or 80% of the 2011 production target with more capacity to come-on throughout the year). This compares favourably vs. the industry's 2011 production forecast which we have downgraded by about 6%.
§                          Large pricing exposure in 2011. We understand that the company has merely priced in about 20% of its 2011 production forecast at around US$90/t ASP. Hence, it is still well-exposed to the rising coal price environment.
§                          Attractive valuation. We believe that the stock is attractively valued trading on 10x and 9x 2011-12E adjusted PER vs. the historical sector average of 13x. We have changed our Asean coal valuation methodology from DCF to PER as we now expect the coal market will trade at a significant premium to the cost curve over the next three years, and therefore that stocks will trade at a premium to DCF. Our price targets are based on a 12x PER in 2011E and 11x in 2012E.

Earnings and target price revision
§                          We upgrade our earnings by 31-46% in 2011-12 due to our higher coal price assumptions, leading us to be 30-60% ahead of consensus.

Price catalyst
§                          12-month price target: Rp11,500 based on a PER methodology.
§                          Catalyst: Continuous increase in coal price and reserves upgrade.

Action and recommendation
§                          We reiterate our Outperform recommendation on Harum with a revised price target of Rp11,500. The stock is one of our key picks in the regional coal sector and we believe consensus upgrades will drive share performance.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.43

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