Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Rabu, 19 Januari 2011

J.P. Morgan Indonesia Indonesia Telecom: 4Q10/FY11 Preview - All about execution: OW ISAT/EXCL; Downgrade TLKM to N

Execution drives margin, drives EPS, drives share price: 2010 share prices were driven mainly by margin surprise driven by changing execution. 2011 should be no different. EXCL should see some further
upside EBITDA margin surprise as 2010 measures flow through, but the mantle for margin revisions should pass to ISAT as 2H10/1H11 measures begin to impact. TLKM will likely see negative margin revisions due to a less aggressive focus on transformative cost control measures.

We are downgrading TLKM to N, revising our Dec-11 PT by -16% to Rp8200/share: 1) TLKMsel does not appear to be addressing both the price x volume elements of each cost line item with as much vigor as
competitors; 2) EXCL and ISAT expansion ex-Java puts TLKMsel’s historic pricing premium in those areas at risk, dragging down their ARPM; 3) TLKM will likely take longer to execute any tower sale given
the presence of Singtel in the negotiations; 4) recent management changes were not as transformative as some desired. Our total return expectation at 13% does not look attractive now and we would be buyers
of the stock at Rp7,100 levels.

Weak 4Q10 known, focus on 2011: The market is well aware of weakness in 4Q results due to a combination of holiday timing and pricing issues. We expect that EXCL will post a decent quarter, ISAT
should be fine relative to low expectations, while TLKM could be the largest negative surprise. We recommend investors focus on 2011, where we see wireless market revenue growth of 10-15% and positive margin surprise at EXCL and ISAT.

Maintain OW rating on ISAT/EXCL decreasing Dec-11 PTs by  9%/15% to Rp6000 and Rp6800: Our revised 2011 EPS for  ISAT/EXCL are still 2%/12% ahead of the Street. We expect total returns of 17% and 19% from ISAT and EXCL.

Key risks: Sale of tower assets and sector consolidation are key upside risks to our price targets while additional tariff cuts are a downside risk.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.43

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)