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Senin, 17 Januari 2011

JPM Indo: downgrading TLKM to Neutral

RESEARCH CALLS
* The JPMorgan view – Global positives for risk assets dominate local threats. On equities, the very strong momentum in prices, flows, positions and earnings keeps us with a bullish stance. On FX, cover EUR short on positive EMU event risk and move to USD funding for longs in CHF, CAD, and SEK. On economics, continued strong activity data allow us to signal further upside risk on global growth. US Q1 raised, even as we lower Q4 of 2010. On asset allocation, being long equities versus government debt remains our favourite position. On fixed Income, stay short in EM and Euro area peripherals. On credit, stay defensive on tax-exempt US Municipal bonds. On commodities, we switch from WTI to Brent as our new benchmark for oil prices. We take profits on our longs in Gold and Palladium and we switch from Grains into Corn. Also reduce risk on the long in Brent.

* Indo telcos – Jim Sullivan is downgrading TLKM to N, revising our Dec-11 PT by -16% to Rp8200/share: 1) TLKMsel does not appear to be addressing both the price x volume elements of each cost line item with as much vigor as competitors; 2) EXCL and ISAT expansion ex-Java puts TLKMsel’s historic pricing premium in those areas at risk, dragging down their ARPM; 3) TLKM will likely take longer to execute any tower sale given the presence of Singtel in the negotiations; 4) recent management changes were not as transformative as some desired. Our total return expectation at 13% does not look attractive now and we would be buyers of the stock at Rp7,100 levels.

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
* Indofood (INDF) – analyst Stevanus Juanda has confirmed with ICBP/INDF that they will hike instant noodle prices by about 7% or Rp100/pack, allaying concerns of margin pressure from rising wheat price.

* Bank Jabar (BJBR) – targeting Rp1.16trn net profit for year 2011, a 20% growth over year 2010 net profit expectation of Rp970bn, according to CEO Mr.Agus Ruswendi.. Consensus number looks a bit high compared to the statement, at Rp1,070bn for year 2010 and Rp1,321bn for year 2011. On the latest guidance, the stock trades on 10x P/E 2011. Not Rated by JPMorgan.

* Bukit Asam (PTBA) – as a follow-up to the press article last week on coal price negotiation between PLN and PTBA, corporate secretary for PTBA Achmad Sudarto told the press that while there is a local price benchmark for coal price, in practice prices are set based on negotiation. (Investor Daily).

* Matahari (MPPA) & Multipolar (MLPL) – in a press statement and disclosure to the IDX officials, managing director for MLPL Harijono Suwarno said that his company would welcome the global retailers’ interests to be part of Matahari’s hypermart operation. Merrill Lynch, their adviser, has reportedly urged Matahari to keep its stake in hypermart, but at the same time take a strategic partner to help the company to expand more aggressively. (Investor Daily, Bisnis Indonesia, Kontan). My take – the hope for MPPA sealing strategic partneship with a global retailer is still alive. Also see the AWSJ article below on the potential sale of Kabelvision where MLPL owns a 34% stake.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.08

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