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Rabu, 19 Januari 2011

Mandiri Sekuritas Economy: Inflation fears trigger capital outflow

Market review
·         Rupiah weakened by 0.34% last week to Rp9,054/US$ on capital outflows.
·         JCI declined 1.7% to 3,569 last week. Bond market was also under pressure as the 10 year bond yield rose 59bps to 8.45%. Foreigners reduced holdings in stock and government bonds by Rp3.65tn and Rp6.9tn last week.

Global economic update
·         US economy is improving; however, it is not fast enough to reduce unemployment to its normal level. The Fed will continue its QE2 program.
·         China increased reserve requirement, Thailand and South Korea increased benchmark rates last week.

Domestic economic update
·         Fear of rising inflationary pressures and fears that Bank Indonesia is behind the curve in fighting inflation has triggered market correction last week. We believe Bank Indonesia would eventually increase interest rates, but it may want to wait for stronger evidence of demand-pull inflation a! nd govern ment’s price stability policy to take effect.
·         We maintain our view that the rate hike will start in the 2Q11, with the total increase of 50bps for the entire 2011 as we predict inflation to reach 6.6% by YE11.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.40

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