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Rabu, 19 Januari 2011

CLSA INDO: Most leveraged play will be Bumi and ITMG.

We have talked about extreme weather patterns around the world and the implication it has to agriculture commodities.  In additional to soft commodities, it appears that many still underestimate the potential impact to also the coking and thermal coal market.

Australia controls close to 60% of seaborne coking coal market in the world.  Massive flooding in Australia’s primary coal producing region is now driving up coal prices. Australia warned that flooded mines can take months to drain and that mine stockpiles may run out next week. When similar flooding hit the region in January 2008, spot prices for coking coal soared to $365 per metric ton—about a 50% rise from recent spots prices of $250 and contract prices of $225.

Queensland, one of the worst hit areas by flood, coal producers face a multi-million dollar flood clean-up.  Experts say it could take up to two years to clean up the world's largest metallurgical coal export region.  The floods have crippled Queensland's coal industry, where 46 mines are either underwater or unable to transport coal due to rail disruptions.  Coking coal prices are forecasted to hit US$400-500/tonne this year.

A coking coal shortage will cause high-grade coal to be shifted from power generation to steelmaking—tightening the market for thermal coal. Average prices for thermal coal at Richard’s Bay Australia rose 12% last month with the Newcastle spot now at $136.  Our $125 price assumption for 2010 now seems conservative.  I am sure the street will have to keep upgrading forecast for Indonesia thermal coal players.

Despite strong gains in recent months, the indo coal sector is still a long way from peak valuations trading at 12.5x 2011 earnings and 10.5x 2012 profits. This compares with a five-year average of 13.3x forward earnings.

Most leveraged play will be Bumi and ITMG.  Bumi is is trading at one standard deviation above its five-year average P/E; it is now one standard deviation BELOW the avg, at 10x forward P/E vs 15x average P/E.  The company is targeting c 65m tonnes output this year vs 51m tonnes in 2008.  Earnings will more than double this year and grow by another third in 2012
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.29

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