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Selasa, 18 Januari 2011

Mandiri Sekuritas Cement Sector:Cement records 6.3%growth in 2010,may stutter in 2011 (Underweight)

Q4/10 cement sales didn ’t show improvement as expected.Dec10 YoY sales only recorded an increase by 2.1%,a continuing flat growth since August,when heavy rainy season eroded growth from strong figure during
1st semester (1H10:11.5%yoy).Nonetheless,cumulative sales growth arrived at 6.3%YoY to 43.7mn tons,in line with our expectation of 6.0%in the beginning of the year.Meanwhile,Bag vs bulk data showed no changes
(84:16)suggests that the number of infrastructure projects remained low in 2010,in our view.

We expect cement demand to continue to grow in 2011.High domestic demand and investment spending remained to be the backbone of the growth,although we see possibility of expansion will seem to not be higher than in 2010.We are worried by the haunting inflation (as of Dec10:6.9% yoy)that can go higher than expected,hence stuttering demand,especially in property which has been the sector ’s biggest supporter.Given the expectation of GDP to growth of around 6.0%in 2011 while interest rate to lift by 100bps,we forecast cement demand to increase by around 5.6%yoy, slightly lower of what predicted by Indonesian Cement Association (ASI)of 6-8%.Such figure considers no major progress of infrastructure projects.

However,should infrastructure projects go as planned,cement consumption may be much higher than our forecast,which implied by the increase of bulk sales portion.

Considering the facts we mentioned above,we call for an underweight for the sector,with choosing SMCB as our top Sell to TP:Rp1,950/share,as the current share price has gone above the fair value,assuming ratio of 2010 PE and EV/EBITDA to Mandiri Universe that we apply to the 2011valuation, while with maintain our Neutral recommendation for SMGR and INTP,as we awaits of new catalyst that may give further upside to their current valuations.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.27

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