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Selasa, 18 Januari 2011

Credit Suisse Indonesia Banks Sector - Expect uptrend in working capital loans

● We expect relatively manageable uptick in policy rate and inflation rates ahead. During the last manageable uptrend in inflation and policy rate, we found working capital loans’ contribution to total loans increased. Thus, we believe that this loans segment may exhibit the strongest outlook ahead.

● As of 9M10A, BBCA exhibits the strongest working capital franchise, followed by BMRI. PNBN exhibits the weakest working capital loans franchise of all the Indonesian banks we cover. In addition, BBCA and BMRI also exhibit the strongest CASA franchise and low LDR, implying the most resilient earnings to
potential uptick in policy rate.

● We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on BMRI on robust working capital loans franchise, strong CASA, low LDR and relatively undemanding valuations. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on BBCA despite its strong working capital loans franchise, low LDR and strong CASA given rich valuations.

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