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Rabu, 19 Januari 2011

CLSA INDO: Indo telco sector, put on hold

CLSA Jakarta HoR Dee Senaratne has just written a telco sector report and re-iterates his SELL call on Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ). We remain neutral on the sector.

Key points from the report:
We don’t believe the telco sector is attractive as earnings risk outweighs defensive characteristics.
Competition remains fierce and will remains so. No consolidation in sight.
Valuations: at 13-18x FY11 PER, remain not compelling. Broadly in line with regional telco at 14x.
Dividend yield is also not attractive in Indonesia which would normally compensate for the lack of available growth options.
All of the big 3 offer a negative yield spread over the long-term bond yield.
The negative spread is most pronounced in Indosat (ISAT IJ) which has a negative -5% spread over the current 10-year bond yield (8.5%).
Telkom (TLKM IJ) has the most downside. Now distracted with a Cambodian acquisition its margins continue to slide as it hemorrhages market share.
Indosat (ISAT IJ) value-based approach does not add values. Still losing market share to Excelcomindo (EXCL) while ARPU continues to decline.
ISAT plans to maximize the value of its tower assets by leasing out or sell some of its towers.
EXCL is the most interesting play in the telco space. Fastest growing, the most efficient operator, and valuation looks more attractive at 13.1x PER 2011 (consensus) and 30+% growth.

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