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Rabu, 08 Juni 2011

STRATEGY: Buy Outside Java Consumption - BBRI, GGRM, ASII, INDF, SMGR - Credit Suisse

I agree to overweight Outside Java Consumption stocks, which a good proxy to both domestic consumption and global commodity boom, and hence Buy BBRI (@Rp6,500 on 11.9x 2011F PER), GGRM (@44,600 on 17.2x), ASII (@58,950 on 15.7x), INDF (@5,500 on 14.5x), SMGR (@9,650 on 14.9x). CS GEM Model Portfolio also includes 2 Indonesian stocks ie ASII and INDF. At JCI 3,844pts, CS Indonesia Universe is trading on 14.4x 2011F PER on +27% EPS Growth, Teddy Oetomo is forecasting 8% upside to end-2011F JCI target 4,150pts (16x 2011F PER). Teddy’s market screening on valuation and earnings expectation come up with Cheap stocks- BMRI (@Rp7,100 on 13.1x 2011F PER), INDF (@5,500 on 14.5x), TLKM (@7,650 on 12.0x) & BBRI (@6,500 on 11.9x).

· Teddy Oetomo (Daily attached): Commodity and domestic consumption stories currently remain the two main drivers of Indonesia’s equity market, with commodity and domestic consumption plays representing 17.9% and 11.3% of Indonesia’s capital market (JCI) by weight.
· However, what is often overlooked is that robust commodity prices lead to stronger income, and purchasing power, in commodity producing regions. With the majority of commodities produced outside Java, Credit Suisse’s survey finds higher income in regions outside Java than in Java. Interestingly, we believe that the penetration of consumption goods outside Java remains relatively modest, with residents outside Java still found to exhibit higher propensity to save, providing upside for consumer plays.
· We identify four companies that may benefit from stronger purchasing power outside Java, namely BBRI, GGRM, ASII, INDF and SMGR.

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