Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Rabu, 08 Juni 2011

INCO: Hold; Rp4,675; TP Rp5,000; INCO IJ To shut down furnace for maintenance - DBS Vickers

International Nickel Indonesia (INCO) plans to shut-down one of its four electric furnaces in Soroako for five months starting in October for routine maintenance. Assuming 75% utilization rate for each electric furnaces, we estimate INCO’s output would drop by 7% y-o-y to 68,000 tons in FY11F before recovering to 73,000 tons in FY12F.

Meanwhile, INCO’s third hydro power plant in Karebbe is near completion ( > 78% complete) and is expected to start operation on schedule in 2H2011. With more power, INCO should be able to increase production capacity gradually through de-bottlenecking of its production facility and increase in capacity from 77,000 tons to 90,000 tons by 2014. We forecast 7% production CAGR over FY11F-15F.

We reiterate our HOLD call for INCO, Rp5,000 TP based on blended valuation of DCF (WACC 9% 3% terminal growth), 14x FY11 PE and 8.0x EV/EBITDA. We like INCO because it is one of the lowest cost nickel producers, and will be the prime beneficiary of rising nickel prices. But we think the shares are fairly priced. INCO is trading at 12.0x FY11F PE, above regional peers’ 10x. Maintain HOLD.

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