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Jumat, 10 Juni 2011

Economy No policy change expected at today’s BI meeting - DBS Vickers

Bank Indonesia (BI) is widely expected to keep the overnight reference rate unchanged at 6.75% when they meet this afternoon. BI’s policy stance remains accommodative, as reflected by the fact that open market operations increased by IDR 3.7trn in May, a small amount compared to the IDR 33trn rise in BI’s net foreign assets. Indeed, inflation is easing and growth is moderating, both of which suggest that BI will continue to keep policy accommodative for a while. CPI inflation slowed to 6.0% in May from 6.2% in April, thanks to the continued declines in food prices backed by local harvest. Motor vehicle sales fell 6.9% in April, affected by the supply chain disruption in Japan . Exports remained robust at 37.3% as of April, but a slowdown is expected in May, in line with the downward correction in the global commodity cycle.

Going forward, we still caution against the upside risks to inflation and interest rates in 2H. Consumers’ inflation expectations for the next three months have jumped by 8 full points in May, based on the latest consumer sentiment survey conducted by the central bank. Food prices are expected to rebound from 3Q onwards after the end of the harvest season. The finance ministry plans to discuss the fuel subsidy policy during the mid-year budget review in July. As the gap between the unsubsidized and subsided fuel prices is as wide as it was in early-2008, the possibility of a fuel subsidy cut by the government can’t be discounted. Besides food and oil, core inflation is also likely to pick up in 2H to reflect the buildup of demand-pull price pressures. This is in line with our expectations that economic growth will regain momentum in 2H. The disruption impact of Japan earthquake should be short-lived. The decline in global commodity prices also paused in late- May. As such, policy priority would still be given to curbing inflation in the coming quarters. We maintain our view that BI will resume tightening in 2H (+75bps to 7.5%).

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