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Senin, 06 Juni 2011

Indonesia Cement Sector - New entrants would not arrive before 2014 - Credit Suisse

? Indonesia cement industry operates in a natural oligopolistic market, with a high barrier to entry. This is due to cement mostly being sold in bags (80%) rather than in bulk (20%). However, with high margins, the industry is a lucrative market for new entrants.

? While current demand of 6% CAGR for 2011-13E seems limited, thus the upside will come from the implementation of GoI infrastructure projects. Thus, emergent threat from new entrants will cloud the industry by as early as 2014.

? Meanwhile, the existing cement companies will continue to enjoy the current margins with an ability to pass on the rise in input costs. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT rating on the sector, with Semen Gresik as our top pick in the sector, due to valuation.

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