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Rabu, 08 Juni 2011

INDIKA ENERGY (INDY): Slightly Below expected weak 1Q11 results – reit Buy - Credit Suisse

We reiterate Buy INDY on valuation and PTRO re-floating in 3Q. The 1Q11 Coal Earnings from Kideco is in-line. Disappointments are from other subsidiaries (98.5%-owned PTRO and fully-owned Tripatra ) and not consolidated yet 51%-owned MBSS. CS is forecasting average Thermal Coal benchmark prices of US$125/t 2011F (slightly above weekly NEWC spot FOB US$118.4/t as of May 27th), US$130/t 2012F, US$120/t 2013F, US$100/t 2014F and US$90/t Long-Term. INDY remains cheapest amongst SEA Coal and China Coal stocks! At Rp4,150- INDY is trading on 10.5x 2011F PER on +167% EPS Growth and implied 30% Upside to SoTP Rp5,400, we reiterate BUY INDY on valuation, integrated Coal and energy-services earnings, good operations and value-unlocking from 3Q refloating of 98.5%-owned subsidiary Petrosea (PTRO).

· Fonny Surya (Daily attached): Indika posted Rp265 bn of 1Q11 net income, decreased 9% YoY. This net income is slightly below our expectation, at 13% of our FY11E estimates and 14% consensus estimates. Kideco’s earnings are in line with our estimate, at 21% of our FY11E estimates. We expect 1Q11 to be relatively weak given MBSS is not yet consolidated, the higher strip ratio at Kideco and carryover costs from the cancelled order at Tripatra.
· Moving ahead, we expect earnings to improve QoQ at all business units as we expect a lower strip ratio, consolidation of MBSS’ (about 13% of opr profit) and potential new contracts from Tripatra and Petrosea in 2H11.
· We believe Indika is on track (~80% done) with Petrosea’s refloating process and is prepared to re-list Petrosea within the next couple of months. We believe the re-floating of Petrosea will unlock its value and re-rate Indy’s share price. We maintain OUTPERFORM Indika at target price of Rp5,400/share, implying a 13.5x 2011E P/E.

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