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Senin, 06 Juni 2011

Indika Energy - 1Q'11 earnings; mixed results - Deutsche Bank

1Q'11 NP of Rp265bn only achieved 16% of our & consensus FY forecast; revenue only achieved 19% of FY, GP only 14% of FY, while OP was negative at Rp55bn compared to our FY estimate of Rp219bn.

Petrosea top-line somewhat lagging; hold-co opex still rising
Part of this shortfall, at the operating level, was because our FY includes MBSS (15% of FY revenues) which will only be consolidated starting 2Q'11 post the acquisition in early April. However, Petrosea topline also came below expectation (20% of FY guidance) likely partially due to continued weather issues affecting its contracting business in 1Q'11, though margins were in-line (26%GPM, 17%OPM). This may improve in the subsequent quarters on improving weather, though during the recent Coaltrans conference, a customer of Petrosea indicated concerns of potential equipment delivery delays due to the Japanese earthquake - to be confirmed with the
co'. Outside of Petrosea, gross profit margins improved reversing 4Q'10 losses, but operating expense continued to rise by 46%QoQ and 60%YoY (already 29% of our FY) related to continued M&A due diligence efforts.

Kideco largely on-track; volume 25% of FY guidance
Meanwhile, Kideco's results (at the associate line) were largely consistent with other coal companies. NP of USD107mn achieved 20% of our FY forecast, reflecting expectations of higher ASP in subsequent quarters. 1Q'11 ASP was US$62.5/t, subsequent quarters would have to average US$79.7/ t (about 27% higher) to achieve our FY forecast. ASP rose by 21%YoY offsetting higher cash cost due to higher strip ratio & fuel price. Production volume continued to deliver, already reaching 25% of FY target of 31mT.

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