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Senin, 06 Juni 2011

CPO Sector Seeing the forest through the trees - CLSA

Historically, forestry-related businesses never been a clear black and white. This is especially true for pure forestry plays where there is little transparecy of operations given their massive land area and large amount of people involved in the operation. After recent incident in China Forestry, the latest is allegations of fraud against Sino forest, confidence will be shaken in all forestry related stocks. Our CPO analyst Di Shui caution against grouping CPO planters with forestry operators.

Key takeaways:
Rising environmental scrutiny enforces monitoring of oil palm estates. This reduces CPO producers’ ability to materially overstate plantings.
Unlike forestry operators who can cash in on concessions tomorrow, oil palm takes four years to reach maturity. Overstating concessions will not benefit near term earnings nor affect our fair valuation.
Our CPO investment thesis remains unchanged. Indonesian producers are poised to deliver 40% aggregate earnings growth. Top picks for Indonesian exposure are GGR SP and AALI IJ, trading on 12.1x and 13.0x CL11 PER, vs 14.4x for the sector.

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