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Minggu, 05 Juni 2011

ANTM Bargain purchase gain - Kim Eng

What’s New
􀂃 Antam has acquired the Sarolangun coal mine in Jambi Province for Rp92.5b. Its main aim was to ensure steadfast coal supply for its planned power plant in Sulawesi.
􀂃 The company has held the groundbreaking ceremony for its chemical grade alumina (CGA) plant in Tayan, which is expected to start commercial production in January 2014.

Our View
􀂃 Sarolangun is estimated to hold coal reserves of 15m tonnes with calorific value of 5,300‐5,500kcal/kg. This translates to an acquisition value of around US$0.7/tonne, which is a bargain at the current coal price level.
􀂃 The mine is already operational, producing 200,000 tonnes of coal last year. Antam intends to ramp up annual production to 700,000 tonnes from this year, of which 200,000 tonnes will be consumed inhouse and the rest sold to external parties. However, its 2x30MW power plant will be ready only in 2014, which means Antam can sell Sarolangun’s entire output for the next two years.
􀂃 While coal from a small mine typically fetches a lower ASP than that from bigger mines, we expect Antam’s strength in the other commodities and good ties with selling agents will help the company achieve better pricing for Sarolangun’s coal. Assuming a conservative ASP of US$60/tonne in 2011‐13, we estimate Antam could earn an additional revenue of US$42m pa in 2012‐13, or around 4% of our revenue assumption of Rp8.76t and Rp8.41t for the respective years.
􀂃 The company has provided initial estimates on its CGA Tayan project. Production is projected at 200,000‐250,000tpa with annual revenue of US$200m for the JV, in which Antam holds an 80% stake.

Action & Recommendation
􀂃 Our forecasts are unchanged, pending details from management. Reiterate HOLD and TP of Rp2,400, pegged at 12.5x FY11F PER.

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