Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Minggu, 05 Juni 2011

Economy May inflation data have reinforced the expectations that BI will keep policy unchanged next week - DBS Vickers

May inflation data came in as generally expected. Headline CPI inflation eased slightly to 6.2% YoY in May from 6.2% in April, again helped by the slowdown in food prices. Core inflation rose 4.6% YoY, a similar rate as in the previous month. While headline inflation still exceeds the ceiling of BI’s policy target of 4-6%, core inflation has not yet reached an alarming level. And the inflation-adjusted real rate (overnight) remains in the positive territory. As inflation numbers are benign and uncertainty in the global economy has increased, chances are high that BI will opt to leave rates unchanged at 6.75% at the upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled next Thursday.

Going forward into the second half, we still believe the risks to inflation and interest rates are on the upside. The downward trend in inflation has in fact slowed in May compared to in Mar-Apr. As the local harvest has already passed the peak, food prices fell -0.3% MoM in May, a much smaller degree of decline compared to -1.9% in the preceding two months. A rebound in fresh food prices is expected soon in 3Q, taking into account the end of harvest season and the arrival of the Ramadan festival. Meanwhile, despite the drop in global oil prices in May, the gap between the unsubsidized and subsided fuel prices in Indonesia remains wide and the government may still consider a fuel price adjustment in the second half. Excluding food and fuels, the underlying inflation pressures are also expected to increase in 2H, as indicated by a significantly positive output gap, strong expansion in money supply and resilient growth in consumption demand. We maintain our forecast that BI will hike rates by a cumulative 75bps to 7.5% by the year-end.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar