Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Senin, 06 Juni 2011

Hidden inflation: property - Mandiri

As we lamented the wasted deflation moment in our last month strategy piece, May has seen the revival of inflation. With the ruling party losing on approval rating, we doubt the government will have the gut to raise fuel prices; hence, we likely see strong GDP growth this year. Pent-up inflation, behind-the curve interest rate policy, should be good for property and consumable goods sectors, while the banking sector has probably seen its best moment. We still like energy sector especially coal counters. Index is facing headwinds more due to global uncertainties, however, in the long-term, as growth in developed markets is slowing, upside still exists. We are maintaining our 4,160 end FY11 index target.

Our top picks last month all outperformed JCI. Our last month’s top picks such as mid cap - INDY (+6.2% MoM), JSMR (+5.3% MoM), SGRO (+2.2% MoM) have outperformed the JCI (+0.5% MoM), while our small cap raced faster: MASA (+36.6% MoM), and HEXA (+15.9% MoM). As we are entering the traditionally slow months due to summer holiday, most of actions will be in mid-and-smaller cap stocks.

Benign inflation. Consumer price index increased 0.12% mom in May11, yet the YoY inflation figure eased to 5.98% yoy from 6.16% yoy in a month earlier. The year-to-May period inflation has only reached 0.51%, which is still lower than in the same period last year of 1.4%. Exports held up relatively well, despite earthquake that hampered economic activities in Japan, one of Indonesia's biggest exports destination. No significant deterioration was seen in the non-oil and gas exports to the country. Total exports increased slightly to US$16.5bn (1.0% mom) or increased 37.3% yoy in Apr11, faster than in the previous month. On the other side, imports continued to be robust. Indonesia total imports rose to US$14.9bn (2.8% mom) or increased 32.5% yoy boosted by higher demand for oil and gas imports.

Land inflation. Property loan ytd has increased by 15.6%, higher than ytd growth for the same period in 2010 (3.1%). BSDE, a residential developer in South Jakarta, has increased its land price by an average of 15% in 1Q11 vs 2010 ASP to Rp3.1mn/sqm, while its adjacent development ASRI has upped its price ytd by 24% to Rp4.7mn.sqm. In East Jakarta, KIJA, an industrial land developer increases its land price by 25% to Rp800k/sqm now from its 2010 ASP of Rp640k/sqm. Property stocks are where we see hidden values.

Coal, infrastructure and property are our picks. We continue to like our last month picks : Indika Energy (INDY), and Jasa Marga (JSMR). We add another coal company: Adaro (ADRO) in our pick and Indocement (INTP) in our infrastructure. As for property we see hidden value in Bumi Serpong (BSDE).

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar