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Senin, 06 Juni 2011

Hidden inflation: property - Mandiri

As we lamented the wasted deflation moment in our last month strategy piece, May has seen the revival of inflation. With the ruling party losing on approval rating, we doubt the government will have the gut to raise fuel prices; hence, we likely see strong GDP growth this year. Pent-up inflation, behind-the curve interest rate policy, should be good for property and consumable goods sectors, while the banking sector has probably seen its best moment. We still like energy sector especially coal counters. Index is facing headwinds more due to global uncertainties, however, in the long-term, as growth in developed markets is slowing, upside still exists. We are maintaining our 4,160 end FY11 index target.

Our top picks last month all outperformed JCI. Our last month’s top picks such as mid cap - INDY (+6.2% MoM), JSMR (+5.3% MoM), SGRO (+2.2% MoM) have outperformed the JCI (+0.5% MoM), while our small cap raced faster: MASA (+36.6% MoM), and HEXA (+15.9% MoM). As we are entering the traditionally slow months due to summer holiday, most of actions will be in mid-and-smaller cap stocks.

Benign inflation. Consumer price index increased 0.12% mom in May11, yet the YoY inflation figure eased to 5.98% yoy from 6.16% yoy in a month earlier. The year-to-May period inflation has only reached 0.51%, which is still lower than in the same period last year of 1.4%. Exports held up relatively well, despite earthquake that hampered economic activities in Japan, one of Indonesia's biggest exports destination. No significant deterioration was seen in the non-oil and gas exports to the country. Total exports increased slightly to US$16.5bn (1.0% mom) or increased 37.3% yoy in Apr11, faster than in the previous month. On the other side, imports continued to be robust. Indonesia total imports rose to US$14.9bn (2.8% mom) or increased 32.5% yoy boosted by higher demand for oil and gas imports.

Land inflation. Property loan ytd has increased by 15.6%, higher than ytd growth for the same period in 2010 (3.1%). BSDE, a residential developer in South Jakarta, has increased its land price by an average of 15% in 1Q11 vs 2010 ASP to Rp3.1mn/sqm, while its adjacent development ASRI has upped its price ytd by 24% to Rp4.7mn.sqm. In East Jakarta, KIJA, an industrial land developer increases its land price by 25% to Rp800k/sqm now from its 2010 ASP of Rp640k/sqm. Property stocks are where we see hidden values.

Coal, infrastructure and property are our picks. We continue to like our last month picks : Indika Energy (INDY), and Jasa Marga (JSMR). We add another coal company: Adaro (ADRO) in our pick and Indocement (INTP) in our infrastructure. As for property we see hidden value in Bumi Serpong (BSDE).

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