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Minggu, 05 Juni 2011

BDMN Weak Growth on Lower Margin - AAA

BDMN’s net profit in 1Q11 was only 9% up yoy, due to declining margin in its largest contributor ADIRA. This is most likely due to stiffer competition in automotive financing industry despite relatively stable inflation and higher middle income population. With additional debt of 3.5x, bottom line profit growth in the coming years is expected to be lower.

Cutting Margin
BDMN reported weak 1Q11 result with net profit only inched up by 9% yoy vs. 1Q10 at 78% yoy. This was due to declining asset yield by 170 bps to 15.8% resulting in lower NIM of 10.2% from 12.6%. The lower NIM, however, will be positive to the increase in loan growth amid favorable rate of inflation. We see that BDMN could book around 19% yoy loan growth this year mostly from consumer business.

1Q11: Adira Booked Higher NPL, 3.5x More Debts and Lower Margin By sector, in 1Q11 “mass market loan” posted the highest expansion with 45% yoy growth vs. other loan segment that grew on average 19% yoy. BDMN’s main business depends significantly on Adira Multifinance which contributed around 80% of the total mass market loan, while the portion of mass market loan to total loan was 58% in 1Q11. In short, it is Adira that to a great extent determines BDMN’s performance. This year, Adira targeted 15% yoy increased in new financing to reach Rp29 tn. In 1Q11, new financing has already been on track, reaching Rp7.1 tn, or representing 24% of FY target. However, NPL rose by 40 bps to 1.3%, while NIM down 190 bps to 8.1%. At the same time, interest bearing liabilities jumped 3,5x to Rp3.9 tn, lifting debt/equity to 95% vs. 29%, which will reduce net profit growth going forward as net margin already tumbled to 35% vs. 41% previously.

Valuation, HOLD with Lower TP at Rp6,700
On that aforementioned basis, we revised down our forecast numbers resulting in lower TP of Rp6,700 from Rp7,400. Our TP reflects 2.7x PBV FY11F, valued between average historical PB 3.5x and -1std at 2.1x. Currently the bank’s share is traded at 2.5x PBV, lower compare to peers at 3.0x as BDMN’s ROE is also lower at 18% vs peers at 24%.

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