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Minggu, 05 Juni 2011

Global Emerging Markets Strategy Monthly Recap — There’s Something About May - Citigroup

 Sold in May — EM equities declined by 3.0% in May, marking the worst monthly performance in a year. EMs continued their underperformance of developed markets, as MSCI World fell by 2.5%. The recent decline in EM equities (-7.7% from peak to trough) was accompanied by a pullback in risk appetite as fears over the European sovereign crisis reemerged, leading to a dollar rally and weakening commodity prices.

 Regionals — Asia (-1.8%) was, as usual in falling markets, the best performing EM region in May. MSCI China (-0.3%) held up well as hopes increased for a potential inflection point in inflation and a softening policy stance in 2H11. Latam fell by 3.2% on softening commodity prices and the dollar rise. EMEA fell sharply in May (-6.4%) dragged down by Turkey (-13%), Hungary (-7.8%) and Russia (-7.7%).

 Countries — The top performing EM country in May was Egypt (+10.1%), with the only other markets to rise in the month being Colombia (+2.3%), Peru (+0.8%, which shrugged off presidential election uncertainties) and Indonesia (+0.4%). The bottom five EM markets were all from EMEA: Turkey, Hungary, Russia, Czech Republic and South Africa (the last two falling by 5-6%).

 Commodities/Sectors — Overall, commodity prices fell in May (CRB index: -0.9%) with oil prices leading the way (- 9.8% to $102/barrel (WTI). Weaker commodity prices were reflected in sector performance as Energy was the weakest sector in EMs in May, down 5.2%, followed by Materials (-4.8%). The best performing EM sectors were Health Care (+0.3%), followed by Consumer Disc (-0.02%), and Info Tech (-1.3%).

 Fixed Income and FX — With the dollar’s TWI rising by 1.5% in May, our EM currency proxy fell by 1.0%, accounting for around 30% of the 3.0% dollar-adjusted decline in EM equities in the month. Bond yields eased slightly last month, with the EMBI+ average yield falling to 5.97% while our newly-launched alternative measure of the discount rate, the MSCI-Weighted EM Debt Yield, ended the month at 4.57%.

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