Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Rabu, 08 Juni 2011

Special Report on Indonesia + Risk-Reward on listing regulation for foreign resources companies + cement - Nomura

Indonesia: Building momentum – we identify six key investment opportunities and 10 milestones which, if realised, should lift Indonesia’s real GDP growth above our base case of 7%, on average, over the next five years.

Indonesia is gaining its rightful place on the global stage, as evidenced by its membership in the G20. Its abundant natural gifts, including a large and young population, a stable liberal democracy, proximity in the world’s fastest growing region, and an abundance of natural resources, underlie its tremendous – and now widely appreciated – potential.

It has however taken one and a half decades since the Asian Crisis to regain the “darling of investors” status. The economy – averaging 5.7% growth over the past five years, compared with 4.7% over the five years preceding that – is building momentum.

On the equity side, we favour natural resources stocks (such as Bukit Asam, Adaro, Bumi Resources and London Sumatra); stocks that benefit from discretionary consumption (Astra International); infrastructure stocks (Jasa Marga and Semen Gresik); and stocks in the under-penetrated banking sector (micro-finance leader Bank Rakyat).

Indonesian Finance Minister (in a press report yesterday) was exploring the possibility of requiring resource companies in Indonesia (including mining, plantations & forestry) to list local assets in Indonesia, with a possible minimum public free float of 40%. Our commodity analysts, Ken Arieff Wong and Isnaputra, think this is still at very preliminary stages with no timeline given, and would make companies with Indonesian assets re-visit their plans to list, but any strict requirement (eg 40% public free-float) could be a negative given dilution concerns (though the flipside positive would be a 5% reduction in statutory corporate tax rate). In the mining sector, ITMG can be impacted by the proposal while the impact on INCO is debatable, in our view.

Lafarge (not listed), the global cement player, is reported to have expressed interest and submitted application to the Ministry of Industry seeking permit to build cement plant in East Java. The company is currently in the process of conducting a feasibility study for the plan. In addition, Lafarge is also planning to build a 1.6m tpa of cement plant in Langkat, North Sumatera with total investments of US$275m. If completed, these two plants will augment Lafarge’s presence in Indonesia, in addition to the existing 1.6m tpa capacity it has in Aceh that it has just recently rebuilt post-Aceh tsunami.

Lafarge will be the second international players reported to have interest in investing in the cement industry in Indonesia (the other was a Chinese player), highlighting the attractiveness and potential growth of the sector. While additional players will increase competition pressure in the industry, execution will be the key challenge for new player. East Java tends to be the place for new players to focus given (i) the presence of abundant resources (there is actually a line of limestone mountain in the northern part of Central/East Java), (ii) presence of ports (as distribution point as well as entry point for coal supply).

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar