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Rabu, 08 Juni 2011

BAKRIE TELECOM (BTEL): Reinstating Coverage with Underperform (TP Rp185) - Credit Suisse

Colin is forecasting net earnings loss for 2011F-13F, therefore we reiterate Underperform rating with DCF Rp185, which at Rp365 implies 49% Downside! I am recommending Trading Buy TLKM (@Rp7,650 on 12.0x 2011F PER & implied 27% upside to DCF Rp9,750), while continue to Prefer EXCL (@5,950 on 12.8x & implied 21% upside to DCF 7,200)/ISAT (@5,250 on 23.9x & implied 50% upside to DCF 7,900)/TOWR (@10,400 on 38.3x PER, 11.5x EV/EBITDA & implied 39% upside to DCF 14,500)/TBIG (@2,175 on 14.5x PER, 12.8x EV/EBITDA & implied 22% upside to DCF 2,650)!

· Colin McCallum, CA (Daily attached): We reinstate Bakrie Telecom with an UNDERPERFORM rating. Slowing CDMA fixed wireless growth in our view is a direct result of lower GSM price points following the 2007-8 price war, together with ongoing declines in GSM handset and smart phone price points. While Bakrie Telecom has a strong management team, we believe these to be structural issue which are unlikely to reverse. We, therefore, expect the organic revenue growth rate to remain firmly in single digits and, given ongoing opex and capex pressures due to lack of scale, our DCF-based target price is limited to Rp185.
· Bakrie Telecom has reported 1Q11 results. Gross revenue declined by 0.4% QoQ and rose only 2.2% YoY despite an increase in standard tariffs on 1 November 2010. Given Bakrie Telecom’s small scale (3.7% of total market revenues as at 1Q11), the 2.2% YoY revenue growth rate that was eked out was, in our view, not enough. EBITDA declined by 11.7% YoY due to rising opex, EBIT declined by 87.5% YoY and Bakrie Telecom reported a loss before forex of Rp157 bn.

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