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Rabu, 08 Juni 2011

INDY:Positive story remains - Mandiri

Indika posted 1Q11 results with a net profit of Rp265bn (-9.6%yoy, -3.0%qoq) mainly due to the rupiah’s appreciation and also lower earnings contribution from Petrosea and Santan Batubara due to lower production and higher operational cost. Redenomination in US dollar reporting will make INDY’s book look better. 16% realization vs peers of 19-20% of our FY11F is expected considering higher back end loaded project realization in 2H11 including new contract Cepu Block that we have incorporated of S$45mn revenue in 2H11 and the consolidation impact from MBSS will take place in 2Q11. Well expected new contracts in PTRO, Tripatra and MBSS are likely to drive their earnings performance next quarters. We reiterate our Buy rating.

Weak 1Q11 results. INDY reported operating loss of Rp55bn mainly due to higher carried over construction cost from Tripatra and continued M&A due diligence costs. Higher strip ratio up to 11.94x, jumping 57.2% yoy, following pre stripping strategy and wet weather also caused weak profitability in Santan Batubara with 1Q11 net profit dropping 52% yoy to US$5.2mn. But it is expected to normalize next quarters following higher coal output in next quarters.

Kideco remains intact. Kideco’s results were in line with our expectation with production reaching 7.65Mt, up 9.1% yoy, or represented 24.2% our FY11F’s of 31.7Mt, considerably higher than peers of around 20% of FY11F target. Kideco’s pricing was also inline with their guidance with 1Q11 ASP of US$62.5/ton, +19.5%yoy representing 95% FY11F of US$66/ton.

Petrosea will grow bigger. Petrosea will get new contracts from Adimitra Baratama Nusantara (ABN), Toba group, worth US$396mn. Our channel checking revealed that Toba Group is one of big domestic coal producers with total production of around 4Mt last year and is expected to double within 3 years.

MBSS has robust prospect. MBSS has signed new contract with Borneo Indobara (Sinar Mas Group) in March 2011 worth around US$12mn/year. MBSS is also expected to have new project in pipeline worth US$94mn. MBSS reported 1Q11 net profit of Rp77bn, up 31.3%yoy, representing 25% FY11F. April’s indicative net profit is Rp30bn, annualized net profit will be around Rp320bn, 3% higher than our FY11F

Maintain TP, reiterate Buy. We maintain our Buy rating on INDY and have not changed our forecast since we prefer to wait its 2Q11 results to see the impact of the MBSS’s consolidation. Catalysts from new contracts in MBSS, PTRO, Tripatra and higher ASP in Kideco will drive its performance in the coming quarters. We maintain our TP at Rp5,200 implying 15.7x PER11F and we reiterate our Buy rating.

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