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Rabu, 01 Juni 2011

ASRI 1Q11 result: comfort on earnings delivery - JP Morgan

• 1Q11 earnings slightly above ours and consensus. ASRI reported net earnings of Rp158bn, 31% of consensus and 29% of our FY11 earnings estimate. ASRI’s earnings is up by 250% y/y and 269% q/q. Our FY11E earnings estimate is currently 7% above consensus. We expect the stock to outperform post the earnings announcement as consensus would adjust upward its earnings estimate, towards our forecasts.
• High earnings run rate, giving comfort on earnings delivery. ASRI’s current earnings run-rate, at Rp158bn in 1Q11, is the highest since its IPO. We think that the 1Q11E result should give comfort on the company's ability to deliver earnings. The company's net margin in 1Q11E of 39.1% is broadly in-line with our forecast. We think that the company's is on track to meet our higher-than-street earnings number.
• Maintain OW with June-12 PT of Rp485: Our PT is based on 20% discount to NAV of Rp600. The stock is currently trading at FY11E P/E of 10.2x and FY12E P/E of 7.9x. We maintain our view that consistent recording of earnings coupled with successful launch of Pasar Kemis will lead to re-rating on ASRI (see our initiation note published on May 30th; Alam Sutera; Constructing Growth).
• Key risks. Key risks to our rating, earnings estimates, and price target are: (1) weak response of Pasar Kemis development, which is targeted to be launched in 4Q11, (2) higher-than-expected operating expenses from marketing sales and wider diversification, (3) diversification risks, (3) weak consumer confidence, if fuel subsidy is removed in 2H11.

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