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Senin, 30 Mei 2011

KALBE FARMA (KLBF): Dividend Payout increase to 51% from 25%, upside 100%? - Credit Suisse

Assuming Dividend Payout is like UNVR at 100% (??), then Dividend Yield is 4.2% 2011F and 5.4% 2012F. Our Valuation preference for Overall Consumer Sector is INDF (@Rp5,450- 14.4x 2011F PER), ASII (@59,300- 15.8x), ICBP (@5,250- 16.4x Consensus 2011 PER), GGRM (@43,500- 16.7x), KLBF (@3,350- 20.5x), UNVR (@14,850- 26.0x). Accumulate INDF, ASII, ICBP, GGRM, Hold KLBF and Take Profit UNVR!

· Ella Nusantoro (Daily attached): Kalbe Farma announced its dividend payout ratio of 51%, up from 25% in the previous year. This came as no surprise and is within our expectation. The Rp70/share dividend will provide a 2% yield. Management stated that it would try to maintain a minimum of 50% payout ratio, if not higher. We view the move to distribute higher dividend as positive, given that the company has abundant cash. We estimate that even with the 50% payout ratio and the Rp650 bn planned capex, its cash as of the end of 2011 was Rp1.9 tn. In addition to that it still has Rp2.3 tn worth of T-shares.

· We like the company, as it continues to provide strong growth and has a healthy balance sheet; however, our concern remains on the valuation. The share price has doubled in the past 12 months, on the back of stronger rupiah (around 90% of its raw materials’ cost is US$-denominated). The stock now trades at 20.7x 2011E P/E, although it has come off from its peak of 23x. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on the stock.

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