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Senin, 30 Mei 2011

SEA COAL SECTOR: Upside risk in thermal coal prices– reit Buy INDY ITMG PTBA - Credit Suisse

Asset-based valuation on Figure 39 & 40 page 17 shows PTBA and ADRO at premium while BUMI at discount. I continue to recommend Take Profit ADRO and BUMI, while recommending Buy INDY/BORN/ITMG/PTBA on PER valuation.

· Paworamon Suvarnatemee, CFA: Domestic price in China on the uptrend. Trina Chen, CS’s China Basic Materials analyst, published May Basic Materials report today highlighting upside risk in thermal coal price. Domestic thermal coal price at QHD increased slightly to US$113/t (ex. VAT) and seaborne NEWC spot price stayed at US$119/t. Coal inventory at QHD is 5.9mnt, up 1mnt from the beginning of May. Overall reported coal inventory in China was 268mn tonne as of the end of March 2011, up 1% MoM. In her report, she highlights upside risk on coal prices in the coming months, driven by potential ease in power tariffs control and weak hydro generation.

· Upside risks to thermal coal prices. Peak summer demand in China is expected to be in August. Rising domestic prices in China would suggest that there is room for power plants in China to pay higher prices for imported coal from seaborne market.

· CS forecast benchmark coal price in seaborne market of US$120/t in 2Q11 and 3Q11 before the recovery to US$130/t in 4Q11. We assume that gas substitution in Europe, lower seasonal demand from India, and higher supply from Indonesia dry seasons would put a cap on coal prices until the end of 3Q11. The risk of power shortage in China came as a surprise and add to the upside risks of coal prices in seaborne market.

· We maintain our OUTPERFORM ratings on PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG.JK, Rp46650.00, O [V], TP Rp57000.00), PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY.JK, Rp4100.00, O, TP Rp5400.00), PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA.JK, Rp21200.00, O, TP Rp26500.00). If benchmark coal prices are to rise from current level of US$117/t to closer to US$130/t or higher, the more liquid names such as Banpu (BANP.BK, Bt742.00, N, TP Bt875.00) and PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO.JK, Rp2375.00, U, TP Rp2050.00) may see some buying interests. Our valuation and ratings are summarized in the table below.

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